The Western U.S. is home to some of the most abundant solar energy in the world. The Southwest region, from California to New Mexico, receives on average more solar radiation per day than anywhere else in the country.
In January, the Bureau of Land Management released a draft environmental analysis of the updated Western Solar Plan, a federal blueprint that shows where developers can apply for permits to build solar projects on BLM-administered public lands in the West. The new version revises a 2012 plan, adding more states and redrawing the lines around which areas should be protected from and which should be open to large-scale solar development. The agency has proposed five alternatives for where to draw those lines.
The plan is focused on utility-scale solar projects that sell energy to utility companies that power cities and towns. Most utility-scale projects use the same technology as rooftop solar, but they operate on a much larger scale, sometimes covering thousands of acres in solar panels.
After the BLM announced the upcoming revisions in late 2022, hundreds of public comments were sent in. People applauded the timely update, raised concerns about key natural habitats, and emphasized the need for early and ongoing consultation with tribes.
Some of these ideas are now reflected in the current draft. Meanwhile, the BLM is accepting comments until April 18. Once the new Western Solar Plan is finalized, possibly by the end of this year, all proposed solar developments will undergo an individual review before approval.
The solar imperative
The U.S. needs solar development to meet its renewable energy goals, which include a 100% carbon-pollution-free power grid by 2035. If the country succeeds in meeting this goal, the 11 Western states in the Lower 48 could have 548.6 GW of electricity generation capacity by 2045, according to data from one potential scenario published by the National Renewable Energy Lab.
In this scenario, approximately one-third of capacity will come from solar energy, and more than three-quarters of that will come from utility-scale solar.
The updated Western Solar Plan assumes that Western states will build more utility-scale solar capacity by 2045 than is expected in the National Renewable Energy Lab’s scenario. Using high estimates to ensure sufficient land, the BLM expects the West to produce 174.2 GW — enough to power 52.8 million American homes — with up to 75% of the energy developed on BLM land and the remainder on private, tribal, state or other federal land. As of December 2022, the BLM had already permitted 73,000 acres of public land for solar projects totaling 9.2 GW.
Here are three of the BLM’s five proposed alternatives, along with its estimate of how much land will actually be developed.
The BLM administers approximately 173 million acres in 11 Western states, including the majority of Nevada and large swaths of Wyoming and Utah.
55 million-acre alternative
The broadest alternative proposed would leave all areas open except for those with known cultural and ecological resources, such as sacred tribal sites, scenic byways, sage grouse habitat and old-growth forests.
22 million-acre alternative
The BLM’s preferred alternative would also exclude all those cultural and ecological resources, while opening only regions within a 10-mile radius of existing and planned transmission lines.
11 million-acre alternative
Another alternative would also exclude those resources and open only previously disturbed land.
Ultimately, about 1 million acres of BLM land in the West will need to be developed to meet the nation’s clean energy goals, according to the draft analysis. This includes nearly 700,000 acres under the Western Solar Plan, along with roughly 283,000 acres of BLM land in California, which are covered under a separate renewable energy and conservation plan.
Altogether, the estimated acreage required for utility-scale solar is only a fraction of the 19 million acres of BLM land in the Western states with active oil and gas leases as of 2022.
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This article appeared in the April 2024 print edition of the magazine with the headline “The great solar build-out.”
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