Why Western wildfires are becoming more destructive

Over the past decade, they’ve destroyed 246% more homes and buildings.

 

The fire risk goes beyond rising temperatures and dry conditions.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

It can be tempting to think that the recent wildfire disasters in communities across the West were unlucky, one-off events, but evidence is accumulating that points to a trend.

In a new study, we found a 246% increase in the number of homes and structures destroyed by wildfires in the contiguous Western U.S. between the past two decades, 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.

This trend is strongly influenced by major fires in 2017, 2018 and 2020, including destructive fires in Paradise and Santa Rosa, California, and in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. In fact, in nearly every Western state, more homes and buildings were destroyed by wildfire over the past decade than the decade before, revealing increasing vulnerability to wildfire disasters.

What explains the increasing home and structure loss?

Surprisingly, it’s not just the trend of burning more area, or simply more homes being built where fires historically burned. While those trends play a role, increasing home and structure loss is outpacing both.

Entire neighborhoods were reduced to ash when a wildfire spread into Santa Rosa, California, in 2017.

As fire scientists, we have spent decades studying the causes and impacts of wildfires, in both the recent and more distant past. It’s clear that the current wildfire crisis in the Western U.S. has human fingerprints all over it. In our view, now more than ever, humanity needs to understand its role.

Wildfires are becoming more destructive

From 1999 to 2009, an average of 1.3 structures were destroyed for every 4 square miles burned (1,000 hectares, or 10 square kilometers). This average more than doubled to 3.4 during the following decade, 2010-2020.

Nearly every Western state lost more structures for every square mile burned, with the exception of New Mexico and Arizona.

Charts showing rising trend of loses from fires.
Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023, CC BY

Humans increasingly cause destructive wildfires

Given the damage from the wildfires you hear about on the news, you may be surprised to learn that 88% of wildfires in the West over the past two decades destroyed zero structures. This is, in part, because the majority of area burned (65%) is still due to lightning-ignited wildfires, often in remote areas.

But among wildfires that do burn homes or other structures, humans play a disproportionate role – 76% over the past two decades were started by unplanned human-related ignitions, including backyard burning, downed power lines and campfires. The area burned from human-related ignitions rose 51% between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.

This is important because wildfires started by human activities or infrastructure have vastly different impacts and characteristics that can make them more destructive.

Unplanned human ignitions typically occur near buildings and tend to burn in grasses that dry out easily and burn quickly. And people have built more homes and buildings in areas surrounded by flammable vegetation, with the number of structures up by 40% over the past two decades across the West, with every state contributing to the trend.

Human-caused wildfires also expand the fire season beyond the summer months when lightning is most common, and they are particularly destructive during late summer and fall when they overlap with periods of high winds.

As a result, of all the wildfires that destroy structures in the West, human-caused events typically destroy over 10 times more structures for every square mile burned, compared to lighting-caused events.

Map showing where fires burned in 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, comparing lightning-sparked to human-ignition and the amount of structures burned from each. More structures were burned in human-started fires.
Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023, CC BY

The December 2021 Marshall Fire that destroyed more than 1,000 homes and buildings in the suburbs near Boulder, Colorado, fit this pattern to a T. Powerful winds sent the fire racing through neighborhoods and vegetation that was unusually dry for late December.

As human-caused climate change leaves vegetation more flammable later into each year, the consequences of accidental ignitions are magnified.

Putting out all fires isn’t the answer

This might make it easy to think that if we just put out all fires, we would be safer. Yet a focus on stopping wildfires at all costs is, in part, what got the West into its current predicament. Fire risks just accumulate for the future.

The amount of flammable vegetation has increased in many regions because of an absence of burning due to emphasizing fire suppression, preventing Indigenous fire stewardship and a fear of fire in any context, well exemplified by Smokey Bear. Putting out every fire quickly removes the positive, beneficial effects of fires in Western ecosystems, including clearing away hazardous fuels so future fires burn less intensely.

How to reduce risk of destructive wildfires

The good news is that people have the ability to affect change, now. Preventing wildfire disasters necessarily means minimizing unplanned human-related ignitions. And it requires more than Smokey Bear’s message that “only you can prevent forest fires.” Infrastructure, like downed power lines, has caused some of the deadliest wildfires in recent years.

Reducing wildfire risks across communities, states and regions requires transformative changes beyond individual actions. We need innovative approaches and perspectives for how we build, provide power and manage lands, as well as mechanisms that ensure changes work across socioeconomic levels.

Dot chart showing how each state's area and buildings burned changed. Calfiornia, Oregon and the West overall had above average loss and above average burning. Colorado had above average loss and below average burning.
Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023, CC BY

Actions to reduce risk will vary, since how people live and how wildfires burn vary widely across the West.

States with large tracts of land with little development, like Idaho and Nevada, can accommodate widespread burning, largely from lighting ignition, with little structure loss.

California and Colorado, for example, require different approaches and priorities. Growing communities can carefully plan if and how they build in flammable landscapes, support wildfire management for risks and benefits, and improve firefighting efforts when wildfires do threaten communities.

Climate change remains the elephant in the room. Left unaddressed, warmer, drier conditions will exacerbate challenges of living with wildfires. And yet we can’t wait. Addressing climate change can be paired with reducing risks immediately to live more safely in an increasingly flammable West.The Conversation

Philip Higuera is a professor of fire ecology at the University of Montana; Jennifer Balch is an associate professor of geography and the director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder; Maxwell Cook is a Ph.D. student in the department of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder; and Natasha Stavros is the director of the Earth Lab Analytics Hub at the University of Colorado Boulder.

We welcome reader letters. Email High Country News at [email protected] or submit a letter to the editor. See our letters to the editor policy.

High Country News Classifieds
  • 2023 SEASONAL AND FULL-TIME POSITIONS AVAILABLE!
    Advance your career while completing vital forest and watershed restoration in wild and scenic northern Sierra!
  • CONSERVATION EASEMENT PROGRAM MANAGER
    We are seeking a dedicated natural resources professional to lead FRLT's Conservation Easement Stewardship Program. This position is responsible for maintaining professional working relationships with...
  • PUBLIC PROGRAMS MANAGER
    We are looking for a hands-on leader to bring our public programs to life in Sierra Valley and across the Watershed. This role offers a...
  • MATADOR RANCH MANAGER
    The Matador Ranch Manager directs operations, communication, and maintenance for TNC Montana's Matador Ranch preserve with a focus on ecological management and restoration, grazing management,...
  • EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR - THRIVE HOOD RIVER (OREGON)
    Thrive Hood River (Oregon) is looking for a collaborative leader who cares deeply about Hood River's wild places, farmland and the quality of life in...
  • NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PROJECT MANAGER
    Seeking qualified Northern New Mexico Project Manager to provide expertise, leadership and support to the organization by planning, cultivating, implementing and managing land conservation activities....
  • NORTH FORK RECREATION DISTRICT ADMINISTRATOR
    The NFPPRD District Administrator provides leadership and managerial services associated with the Recreation District. Facilities include a seasonal pool, ballfields, bike trails, tennis/pickleball and skateboarding....
  • EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, BADLANDS CONSERVATION ALLIANCE
    The Executive Director of the Badlands Conservation Alliance (BCA) builds and leads a premiere North Dakota advocacy group that serves to protect the ecology of...
  • CLIMATE FELLOW
    Application deadline: Monday, March 6th, 2023, at 5 p.m. MST. Anticipated start date: May 15, 2023 About the position Are you ready to craft an...
  • RISING LEADERS MANAGER
    Application deadline: Monday, March 27, 2023, at 5 p.m. MST Anticipated start date: May 22 or May 30, 2023 About the position Do you want...
  • SENIOR SPECIALIST, LANDSCAPE CONNECTIVITY YELLOWSTONE TO YUKON CONSERVATION INITIATIVE
    About the Organization Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) is a joint Canada-U.S. not-for-profit organization with a mission to connect and protect wildlife habitat from...
  • VIRGINIA SPENCER DAVIS FELLOWSHIP
    High Country News, an award-winning magazine covering the communities and environment of the Western United States, seeks applicants for a Virginia Spencer Davis fellow. The...
  • GRANTS MANAGER
    The Grants Manager is a passionate information manager, fundraiser, and communicator versed in government and foundation grant and cooperative agreement writing and management, specifically to...
  • COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR
    The Communications Director is a passionate communications professional versed in conservation and regenerative agriculture, as well as nonprofit communications and data management across several program...
  • EDUCATION AND OUTREACH PROGRAM DIRECTOR
    The Education and Outreach Director is a people-oriented facilitator, communications wizard, and team leader who has experience designing, managing, and fundraising for land based educational...
  • HIGH COUNTRY NEWS EDITORIAL INTERNS
    High Country News, an award-winning magazine covering the communities and environment of the Western United States, is looking for its next cohort of editorial interns....
  • ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONSTRUCTION GEOPHYSICS
    We characterize contaminated sites, identify buried drums, tanks, debris and also locate groundwater.
  • WESTERN NATIVE SEED
    Native plant seeds for the Western US. Trees, shrubs, grasses, wildflowers and regional mixes. Call or email for free price list. 719-942-3935. [email protected] or visit...
  • CEO BUFFALO NATIONS GRASSLANDS ALLIANCE
    Chief Executive Officer, Remote Exempt position for Buffalo Nations Grasslands Alliance is responsible for the planning and organization of BNGA's day-to-day operations
  • "PROFILES IN COURAGE: STANDING AGAINST THE WYOMING WIND"
    13 stories of extraordinary courage including HCN founder Tom Bell, PRBRC director Lynn Dickey, Liz Cheney, People of Heart Mountain, the Wind River Indian Reservation...